Indian Economy Resilient Despite Rising Global Risks: RBI
India’s economy continues to show resilience despite a more challenging global environment, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s September 2026 Bulletin. India recorded 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026-27, while strong services exports, remittance flows and foreign direct investment supported the external sector. Foreign exchange reserves reached a record $765.9 billion as of September 18, 2026, providing an important buffer against external shocks. System liquidity also remained in surplus, supported partly by strong inflows through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits.
However, the RBI Bulletin highlighted increasing risks from geopolitical tensions, higher crude oil prices, global bond yields and weather-related uncertainty. The escalation of the West Asia conflict has pushed up oil prices and raised concerns about supply-chain disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures. Indian equity markets remained subdued in August and September, while foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers in September. At the domestic level, food prices showed a broad-based sequential increase up to September 21, including higher prices for rice, wheat, pulses and edible oils.
The Bulletin also noted that credit growth maintained momentum while deposit growth picked up, and private-sector investment showed signs of strengthening. A separate analysis indicated that envisaged private-sector capital expenditure could reach ₹3.2 lakh crore in 2026-27. The overall assessment points to strong domestic fundamentals providing a cushion against external volatility, while inflation, energy prices and geopolitical developments remain important risks for the economy.
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